2025-26 Victorian Budget Analysis

The Victorian State Budget was released today, with a $600 million operating surplus forecast to be delivered.

While the budget has been labelled as responsible, with no new taxes introduced, we remain cautious about the impact of rising state debt, which is forecast to reach $187 billion by 2027-28.

Treasurer Jaclyn Symes’ first budget has the tagline Focussed on What Matters Most - the Government leaning into issues affecting everyday Victorians like cost-of-living, healthcare, and community safety.

Headlining the budget is significant investment in healthcare, with a $9 billion package that will include opening nine new or expanded hospitals across the state - including the children’s emergency department at University Hospital Geelong. While this is a positive step in improving healthcare accessibility, we urge the government to ensure that the Geelong region continues to receive equitable funding for essential health services as our city grows.

The budget’s focus on cost-of-living measures will be well received, particularly initiatives aimed at supporting families and workers. The introduction of free public transport for children under 18 and seniors on weekends will make public transport more accessible. What is missing is increased investment into Geelong’s public transport network.

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From a Geelong perspective, there were some announcements that will benefit the region:

Water security - A significant increase in the Total Estimated Investment for recycled water projects in the Barwon region in this budget, mostly for the Growth Area North West Geelong program of works. Barwon Water will continue to have the opportunity to attract further investment through the Commonwealth National Water Grid Fund later this year, pending support from the Victorian Minster for Water. The alternate water grid has been one of the Committee for Geelong funding priorities, and it is pleasing to see this reflected.

Health - Funding into the redevelopment of the Children’s Emergency Department at University Hospital Geelong and creating new beds at the Youth Prevention and Recovery Centre.

Education- Ongoing investment into the Gordon’s Disability Services Hub, along with the extension of Free TAFE. Belmont High School will also receive investment to modernise facilities.

Tourism- $11m of operational funding is included for Nyaal Bunyal Convention and Event Centre, along with funding for the Twelve Apostles Visitor Centre upgrade.

Transport - Investment in improved safety at stations along the Geelong line.

Household support - A doubling of support for food relief services, including for Geelong Food Share.

In addition, there will be some opportunities coming out of this budget for Geelong:

The Economic Growth Statement is funded in full, with $240m being invested to progress all 40 of its initiatives. Given the Avalon Employment Precinct is called out as a priority, we would expect to see funding flow towards Avalon.

In addition, the budget includes a dedicated $50m regional funding stream within the $150m Victorian Investment Fund. This grant program will be aimed towards enabling projects within the Statement’s priority industries. While we await further details, this could be an opportunity for projects like the Geelong Renewables Terminal.

There will also be $5.3m invested in Victoria’s industry and defence supply chains to demonstrate readiness to support the Commonwealth’s strategic defence priorities and continue to create new jobs in advanced manufacturing. With Hanwha commencing operations at Avalon, and further defence industry interest in the region, this is another targeted opportunity in addition to the Investment Fund.

While broader funding opportunities are welcomed, we need to see specific investment in our region to support its continued growth and economic development.

Leading into this budget, expectations were fairly low for any significant announcements for the Geelong region. 

Despite that outlook, the Committee has still been vocal on the need for investment into our region. Our pre-budget statement [1] outlined several priority projects, including investment into the Avalon employment precinct, improved enabling infrastructure and public amenity in Central Geelong to stimulate high density housing developments, tax reform to incentivise development of greenfield areas, improved public transport, and investment in the Bellarine Link.

We note the government’s commitment to tapering off infrastructure investment as projects like Metro Tunnel and the West Gate Tunnel near completion but urge decision-makers to ensure that regional projects are not overlooked in this process.

As the fastest growing region in the State, it is crucial Geelong continues to attract meaningful investment. There is a reality that the ongoing investment into the Suburban Rail Loop is going to absorb a considerable amount of Victoria’s infrastructure spend for years to come. In a period of budget repair, where does that leave Geelong? Or the population living to the west of Melbourne’s CBD more broadly? The Geelong-Wyndham corridor can’t be left behind.

We will continue to work with the Victorian Government to advocate for Geelong’s priorities and ensure that our region continues to thrive.

Michael Johnston

CEO Committee for Geelong

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[1] COMMITTEE FOR GEELONG PRE-BUDGET STATEMENT:

•  Avalon continues to cry out for investment. The re-elected Federal Labor Government have committed $5m towards a feasibility study into upgrading Beach Rd- something vital for the development of the precinct into a freight and logistics hub of significance. Let’s see some funding from the Victorian Government to fast track this. As a minimum, investment into a public transport connection between Lara Station and Avalon.

• Central Geelong is the key to unlock the Government’s infill housing targets in the region. Investment into key enabling infrastructure and public amenity is needed to unlock stagnating developments. Some money towards a full scale feasibility study into the Committee’s concept for a Green Heart on the Market Square site.

• Investment into progressing Bellarine Link. This is the major road project for our region, and it continues to sit stagnant.

• Further funding into improved public transport services. Express bus connections between regional hubs (e.g Ocean Grove, Drysdale, Bannockburn) and Geelong, following on from the express service from Torquay last year. Investment into mobile connectivity on rail. It is absurd that in 2025 the Geelong-Melbourne rail corridor is riddled with blackspots and commuters can’t reliably use that time to work.

• Reduce developer contributions in Geelong’s growth corridors. The current levels are unsustainable, making housing unaffordable and projects unfeasible.

• The allocation of Windfall Gains Tax revenue back into the area from which it’s been collected rather than into consolidated revenue. 

• Some level of funding commitment into the proposed Geelong Renewables Terminal. For Victoria to achieve its renewable energy targets, it requires the offshore wind industry to play an important role. With ongoing uncertainty around the Port of Hastings, GeelongPort is ideally placed to play an important role in this roll out.

• And there are many other worthwhile projects seeking funding such as the Alternate Water Grid, Geelong Gallery redevelopment, and Regional Indoor Sport Centre.

Photo: James Ross/AAP PHOTOS